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Poster Session B: Wednesday, August 13, 1:00 – 4:00 pm, de Brug & E‑Hall

Trial-by-trial Fluctuations in Decision Criterion Shape Decision Confidence

Robin Vloeberghs¹, Lara Navarrete, Anne Urai², Kobe Desender¹; ¹KU Leuven, ²Leiden University

Presenter: Robin Vloeberghs

Many choices we make are accompanied by a sense of confidence. Within Signal Detection Theory (SDT), confidence is traditionally conceptualized as the absolute distance between a decision variable and a decision criterion. Whereas this criterion is typically modeled as being stable over time, increasing evidence suggests that it undergoes trial-to-trial fluctuations. Based on theory and model simulations, we predict that fluctuations in the decision criterion shape confidence. Using the Hierarchical Model for Fluctuations in Criterion (hMFC) to obtain single-trial criterion estimates, we found robust evidence for this hypothesis across 15 datasets. When analyzing each dataset individually the effect was found in 13 out of 15 datasets, indicating a stable pattern across a variety of paradigms and confidence scales. Our results demonstrate that what has been previously interpreted as noise in confidence ratings, instead reflects variability driven by fluctuations in the decision criterion.

Topic Area: Reward, Value & Social Decision Making

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